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05 July 2010

Obama’s Illusionary Job Numbers

This is from The Furthermore blog

JULY 2, 2010

Ok, here we go, again… the lies continue. Jobs lost! Unemployment down?

From the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS): Total non-farm payroll employment declined by 125,000 in June, and the unemployment rate edged down to 9.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.  The decline in payroll employment reflected a decrease (-225,000) in the number of temporary employees working on Census 2010. It was reported that 842,000 dropped out of workforce.

The Summer of Recovery continues… Sooo, unemployment drops when we lose jobs? These numbers appear to be cooked and lack any correlation.

  • Unemployment rate fell because roughly 800,000 people dropped out of the labor force.
  • Those numbers will edge back up, once they're "revised" to account for "new information" in 3 weeks or so.
  • Once unemployment benefits expire – you are no longer considered unemployed. So MORE people fell off the back end of line than entered.
  • The unemployment situation is getting worse.
  • Team Obama does not want the number to be 10% or more, for political reasons.

Unemployment Rate = # of Unemployed/Labor Force. The key is in order to be counted as unemployed and part of the labor force you have to be actively seeking a job. So you can no longer be counted as unemployed because you gave up looking for a job so that is what happened in June.

Basically, what the so-called "unemployment" number reports is the number of people filing unemployment claims. So, even if employers are reporting fewer actual jobs (i.e., number of new hires dropped, or number of new hires is less than number of new fires), if more people have stopped filing unemployment claims – in this case, because they've used up their maximum benefit – than the number of people who have filed new unemployment claims (on account of having just been let go), then you will see both a drop in the total number of jobs and a drop in the so-called official rate of unemployment.

The so-called official rate of unemployment is more of a lie than an accurate statistic (which is, of course, is what the Dem's are currently using it as – a figleaf to disguise the true rate of current unemployment – counting all those who have lost unemployment benefits and have simply given up looking for work – which is somewhere around 20% to 25%).

More and more people have just quit looking for jobs.

The twist: We know that the number of people who are now counted as "not in the labor force" increased from May to June by 842,000. Now, let's look at the increase in the number of people not in the labor force since June 2009: 3,054,000. Over three million people have dropped out of the labor force since last June (2009) – and that, folks is how you keep the "official" unemployment rate below 10%. Lying with statistics for dummies.

If someone gives up looking for work they are still unemployed. Right?  More manipulation…

From the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)… Both the number of unemployed persons, at 14.6 million, and the unemployment rate, at 9.5 percent, edged down in June …

… In June, about 2.6 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, an increase of 415,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding when the survey was taken.

Throw those 2.6 million in and you're at 11.2%.

Now... the number of persons employed part-time for economic reasons (some-times referred to as involuntary part-time workers), at 8.6 million, was little changed over the month.

… add these on top too and you're at nearly 17% unemployed or underemployed. Obama and the Dem's can't bear the thought of the sound of "double digit unemployment"—even though that's what we have. In June 2010, the BLS estimates that there are 82,923,000 Americans no longer in the labor force. There are approximately 235 million Americans age 18 and older. By extension, 35% of our adult population is now no longer working.

The seasonally-adjusted Shadow Government Statistics Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers. That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers.

The U-3 unemployment rate is the monthly headline number. The U-6 unemployment rate is the BLS' broadest unemployment measure, including short-term discouraged and other marginally-attached workers, as well as those forced to work part-time because they cannot find full-time employment.

The Shadow Government Statistics (SGS) Alternate Unemployment chart:

Notice the growing gap between U6 or the SGS alternative and U3. Really shows the effect of discouraged workers dropping out. This is no mystery to me. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is juggling the numbers to try and elect Democrats in November. Watch the July, August, September & October numbers continue to be manipulated downward to show about a 7.9% unemployment rate by election day in November. Only in the movie "love my welfare state" can you get math where fewer jobs means lower unemployment.

Economic warfare is the oldest and most efficient tool of the communists. Far more effective than the gun. Of course, if the GOP were in power in either the Congress or the White House the MSM would be in full throttle about this economic crisis.

Obama on Unemployment: "At Least It's Not at 12, 13 or 15 Percent…"

Pelosi: "Unemployment compensation creates jobs…"

"Being ignorant is not so much a shame, as being unwilling to learn." – Benjamin Franklin

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